Can This Trump Ally End the Republicans' 20-Year Losing Streak in Key State?

Staten Island, N.Y. — The political landscape of New York is already heating up for 2026 as Rep. Elise Stefanik, a prominent Republican figure and top House GOP leader, hinted at a possible run for governor during a spirited appearance at the Staten Island GOP's annual Lincoln Day Dinner. Addressing the crowd in one of New York City's most reliably conservative enclaves, Stefanik energized supporters with a pointed question: "Are we ready to fire Kathy Hochul next year?" Her remarks drew roaring applause, underscoring the growing momentum among Republicans eager for a challenge to the incumbent Democratic governor.

Kathy Hochul, who took office in August 2021 following the resignation of Andrew Cuomo, is expected to seek a second full term next year. While the Empire State has long been considered a Democratic stronghold, recent polling and close contests suggest Hochul could face a competitive re-election bid. Recent surveys show that although Hochul maintains a modest approval rating, a majority of New Yorkers—55%—say they want someone else to serve as governor. Her narrow win over Republican Lee Zeldin in 2022, by just over six points, was the best showing for a GOP gubernatorial candidate in the state since George Pataki last won in 2002.

Stefanik, now firmly aligned with former President Donald Trump and a champion of the MAGA movement, wasted no time touting her credentials and connection to the former president. "I stepped up to deliver President Trump's agenda," she explained, highlighting policy stances on energy independence, border security, and tax reduction—especially the state and local tax deduction, which she argued directly benefits New Yorkers. She emphasized her close relationship with Trump, saying, "He’s paying close attention to New York. He knows that New York state needs new leadership, strong Republican leadership." Stefanik made clear that if she decides to run, she would value Trump’s endorsement, describing it as an honor.

Should Stefanik formally enter the race, she may not be the only contender on the Republican side. Other potential candidates include Rep. Mike Lawler, who represents a critical swing district north of New York City, and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman. Lawler, who has described Hochul as “the most feckless, incompetent governor in America,” expects to decide soon whether to seek re-election or pursue the governor’s office. However, Trump’s recent endorsement of Lawler for re-election to Congress could indicate the former president’s preference for House GOP retention over a gubernatorial bid.

Amidst the brewing GOP competition, Stefanik expressed confidence in party unity, stating, "I think Republicans will work it out. We know how important it is to unify again." She added, “I work very well with all of my colleagues, including those who are considering [a run], but I think we’ll work it out on the Republican side.” The question of Trump’s influence remained front and center, as Democrats noted that the GOP nominee is likely to be determined by the former president’s favor.

The Democratic field, meanwhile, is facing unexpected turbulence of its own. In a rare challenge to a sitting governor, Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado announced plans to contest Hochul in the Democratic primary, criticizing her leadership as lacking vision and transformative power. Although polls currently have Hochul leading her intraparty rivals, including Delgado and Rep. Richie Torres who is also mulling a campaign, the challenge reflects underlying dissatisfaction within the state’s Democratic ranks. The Democratic Governors Association has voiced strong support for Hochul, praising her record and commitment to fighting Republican gains.

For Stefanik, the Democratic discord only underscores her core argument. “I dubbed Kathy Hochul the worst governor in America because it’s true,” Stefanik charged. “It’s not just Republicans. It’s independent and Democrat voters as well across this state who understand that she has failed, she has delivered catastrophic failed policies in New York." She pointedly highlighted that even Hochul’s hand-picked lieutenant governor is now seeking to replace her, calling it evidence of failed leadership.

As speculation mounts, Stefanik says she remains in listening mode, actively traveling the state and gauging support. “I am taking a close look. It’s why I’m crisscrossing the state,” she noted, mentioning stops from Staten Island to Erie County, Suffolk, Albany, and New York City. "I will be making my decision over the coming months," she said, leaving open the possibility that New York’s 2026 gubernatorial race could see one of the country’s most high-profile Republican women taking on both Democratic opposition and the challenge of flipping a long-blue state.