Canada’s Domestic Tourism Industry Could Earn Billions Amid U.S.-China Trade War Impact

Canada’s escalating trade dispute with the United States may be having an unexpected effect on travel trends, as a new report highlights a potential boost for the domestic tourism industry. The Conference Board of Canada’s latest survey indicates that a significantly smaller proportion of Canadians—about 27 per cent—are considering trips to the U.S. in the coming years, compared to more than 50 per cent just six months earlier.

This sharp decline in cross-border travel interest could translate into a considerable economic benefit for Canadian destinations. The report estimates that if Canadians opt to boycott U.S. vacations amid tense trade relations, the resulting increase in domestic travel could bring in as much as $8.8 billion in additional tourism revenue this year. This comes at a time when the number of American tourists visiting Canada—traditionally the country’s largest group of international visitors—has fallen in recent months.

Kiefer Van Mulligen, senior economist and report author, noted that Canada has an opportunity to attract more overseas tourists who might be wary of shifting policies and political rhetoric south of the border. “The Trump administration’s unpredictable approach to international trade and even geopolitical issues, such as the controversial proposal to annex Greenland, may make the U.S. a less appealing destination,” Van Mulligen explained. In turn, Canada could fill the gap by positioning itself as a welcoming alternative for global travelers.

The report also suggests that concerns about a potential economic slowdown, driven by ongoing tariff disputes, could encourage Canadians to prioritize savings and consider “staycations” or travel within the country instead of venturing abroad. Such a shift in consumer behavior would further amplify the positive impact on local hotels, restaurants, cultural attractions, and recreation providers.

While the longer-term effects of the trade conflict remain uncertain, early signs suggest that Canada’s tourism sector may find opportunity amidst conflict, revitalizing domestic travel and supporting jobs across the industry.