Karol Nawrocki Unexpectedly Wins Poland's Presidential Runoff in Major Upset

Karol Nawrocki, running as an independent with the backing of the opposition Law and Justice (PiS) party, has clinched a razor-thin victory in Poland’s presidential runoff. Early Monday morning, the Polish National Electoral Commission confirmed Nawrocki’s win, posting the declaration “Elected in the second round” beside his name on its official website.

Nawrocki captured 50.89 percent of the runoff vote, narrowly edging out his rival, Rafal Trzaskowski, the candidate representing the ruling Civic Coalition (KO) and current mayor of Warsaw, who received 49.11 percent. The final tally caps an intensely fought campaign that saw Nawrocki, a historian by training and the head of Poland’s Institute of National Remembrance, consistently lag behind Trzaskowski in pre-election polls and even in initial exit surveys released Sunday night.

This remarkable upset marks Nawrocki’s first attempt at the presidency. Despite entering the race as a relative unknown on the national political stage, he managed to galvanize opposition support around issues of identity and national history, often invoking his background in historical research and remembrance. Analysts noted Nawrocki’s campaign as an uphill battle, especially given his lack of prior experience in high-profile electoral contests and the formidable political machinery supporting Trzaskowski.

Born in 1983 in Gdansk, Nawrocki inherits the presidency from Andrzej Duda, whose constitutionally-limited second term concludes on August 6. Nawrocki’s victory signals a possible realignment in Polish politics, with the PiS-backed candidate overcoming significant headwinds from the centrist government. The outcome is likely to influence Poland’s future domestic and foreign policy directions, as well as its ongoing debates over judicial reform, European Union relations, and national sovereignty.

Celebrations erupted at Nawrocki’s campaign headquarters as the final results were announced, with supporters hailing the result as a triumph for opposition voices. Despite the close margin, Nawrocki called for unity in his initial remarks, pledging to represent all Poles as he prepares to assume office later this summer.