Survey Reveals Growing Canadian Doubt in Future of U.S.-Canada Trade Relations
Nearly 40% of Canadians and over a third of Americans now express diminished confidence in US-Canada trade relations amid ongoing legal battles over Trump's tariffs.
Concerns regarding the future of trade relations between Canada and the United States are mounting, with close to 40 per cent of Canadians expressing diminished confidence in the wake of recent U.S. court decisions and the protracted legal fight surrounding President Donald Trump’s tariffs. This sentiment is mirrored by a substantial proportion of American respondents, underscoring the widespread uncertainty generated by the ongoing legal turbulence.
The poll, conducted at the start of June, highlights that 38 per cent of Canadians now feel less confident about trade between Canada and the U.S., as well as U.S. trade with other countries. In contrast, only 16 per cent said they feel more confident, while 37 per cent reported no change in their confidence level. The study surveyed over 1,500 Canadians and found similar results across the more than 1,000 Americans polled: 36 per cent of U.S. respondents also admitted feeling less optimistic about future trade, compared to 19 per cent who felt more secure and 31 per cent whose opinions remained steady.
At the heart of these concerns are President Trump's tariffs, which continue to impact multiple countries globally after a federal appeals court granted the Trump administration’s emergency request for a temporary stay. This move came shortly after the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that Trump had exceeded his authority by invoking the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 to pursue his expansive trade policies. For now, the contested tariffs remain in place, further stoking uncertainty among businesses and consumers on both sides of the border.
Regional and demographic disparities in confidence levels were evident, with Albertans reporting the highest level of apprehension: 48 per cent said they now feel less confident about trade relations, compared to 38 per cent of Quebecers, 37 per cent of Ontarians, and 35 per cent of British Columbians. The concern was also notably higher among older Canadians; 43 per cent of those aged 55 and above expressed a decrease in confidence, whereas just 33 per cent of respondents aged 18 to 34 said the same. Across gender lines, women were more likely than men to report growing skepticism about the direction of trade policy.
Despite widespread trepidation about trade, many Canadians have found reassurance in the checks and balances provided by the U.S. judicial system. Approximately 45 per cent of Canadians reported that their trust in American democratic institutions has increased as a result of U.S. courts attempting to limit President Trump’s trade powers, while 17 per cent said their trust has decreased. Quebecers were especially likely to feel this boost in confidence, with 54 per cent indicating greater trust in U.S. institutions, compared to 45 per cent in British Columbia, 43 per cent in Ontario, and 39 per cent in Alberta. Seniors, once again, were more likely than younger Canadians to see their trust increase.
The sentiment was somewhat more mixed among Americans. Thirty-eight per cent stated that U.S. courts’ efforts to curb presidential trade authority increased their trust in democratic institutions, but 24 per cent said it had the opposite effect and another 26 per cent felt unaffected. These divided views point to the complex and polarizing nature of the ongoing legal disputes and their broader implications for public faith in governing institutions.
Observers have suggested that the impact of the judicial decisions on public confidence might have been different if only one ruling had occurred—specifically the original decision to block the tariffs. However, the subsequent appeals process and the temporary stay have left many feeling unsettled. As uncertainty prevails, it appears that confidence in cross-border trade will require time and tangible progress to fully recover.
The polling industry cautions that online surveys such as this cannot be assigned a traditional margin of error, as respondents are not selected randomly from the population. Nevertheless, the findings reflect a significant measure of public concern and highlight the urgency with which North American leaders must address trade stability in the coming months.
