Top Democrats Warn 51,000 Annual Deaths from 'Big Beautiful Bill' and Obamacare Freeze
University study warns that GOP healthcare reforms could result in 51,000 American deaths each year.
Heightened tensions erupted this week in Washington as two leading Democrats issued a stark warning about the potential consequences of the Republicans’ budget reconciliation bill. Oregon Senator Ron Wyden, ranking member of the Senate Finance Committee, and Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont sounded the alarm, claiming that letting the enhanced Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) premium tax credits expire could result in tens of thousands of American deaths annually.
A new analysis commissioned by Wyden and Sanders and conducted by experts from the University of Pennsylvania’s Leonard Davis Institute of Health Economics and Yale School of Public Health’s Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis projects a grim outcome if the Republican-led changes to the federal healthcare system take effect. The study estimates that approximately 51,000 Americans could die each year as a direct consequence of lost Medicaid or Obamacare coverage and rollbacks of crucial healthcare protections.
“These are truly life and death stakes,” declared Senator Wyden. He emphasized that taking away health insurance and benefits like home care and mental healthcare from seniors, people with disabilities, children, and working families will be deadly. Wyden cited figures from the study: 11,300 deaths from the loss of Medicaid or Obamacare coverage, 18,200 deaths related to Medicaid cuts affecting low-income beneficiaries, and 13,000 deaths among nursing home residents following the rollback of a minimum staffing rule—a critical protection under the current system. Another alarming projection: more than 8,800 lives would be lost each year due to the expiration of enhanced premiums under the Affordable Care Act.
Sanders echoed these concerns, labeling the GOP proposal “not just bad public policy,” but a “death sentence for struggling Americans.” He condemned the bill’s sweeping Medicaid cuts, arguing that it is “immoral” to fund tax breaks for billionaires at the expense of the nation’s most vulnerable populations. “We cannot allow that to happen,” Sanders stated bluntly, saying tens of thousands stand to die if the legislation proceeds.
The University of Pennsylvania's team, responding to a request for data by Wyden and Sanders, underscored that the mortality estimates were based on peer-reviewed research completed independently before lawmakers reached out. Their subsequent analysis translated these findings into projected annual deaths if current benefits are rolled back. According to their research, by 2034, an estimated 7.7 million Americans stand to lose Medicaid or Obamacare coverage, including over 1.3 million individuals who qualify for both Medicaid and Medicare.
As Congress debates the so-called “big, beautiful bill,” Democrats maintain that the repercussions extend far beyond numbers on a spreadsheet. "This analysis shows the dire consequences of moving ahead with this morally bankrupt effort," Wyden insisted, referencing the far-reaching and deeply personal impact healthcare policy decisions can have on American lives.
